本周天津方管市場回歸到供需基本面，高庫存低成交拖累市場。上周末鋼坯回落，期螺震蕩下跌，市場成交低迷。周初開市，先是小幅下跌，隨后便有大戶 大幅下調報價刺激出貨，市場價格下跌明顯。周中期，期螺和鋼坯價格有所修復，但由于鐵礦石價格暴跌，市場信心不足，商家在行動方面顯得躡手躡腳，觀望情緒 升溫。直到周后期，期螺再度翻綠，市場成交持續(xù)低迷，一些庫存積壓較大的商家為了盡快出貨降低庫存風險，大幅下調報價，天津方管市場價格再次大幅下跌。

This week, Tianjin Square Management Market returned to the supply and demand fundamentals, high inventory and low turnover dragged down the market. Last weekend, steel billet fell, snail concussion fell, and market turnover was low. At the beginning of the week, there was a slight decline, followed by a large reduction in quotations to stimulate shipments, market prices fell significantly. In the middle of the week, the prices of snails and billets were repaired, but due to the sharp fall in iron ore prices and the lack of market confidence, businessmen appeared to be tiptoeing and watching the mood rise. Until the end of the week, the snails turned green again, and the market turnover continued to be low. In order to reduce the inventory risk as soon as possible, some businessmen with large stock backlog cut their quotation sharply, and the market price of Tianjin Square Pipe dropped sharply again. 需求端遲遲不見改觀，市場庫存壓力巨大，市場情緒悲觀預期加劇。本周迎來立秋節(jié)氣，而高溫多雨的季節(jié)似乎比往年有所延長，導致需求端的季節(jié)轉換遲 遲不能兌現(xiàn)，市場成交低迷。而近日有消息傳出，今年北京市將舉辦建國70周年慶典，從八月二十日至十月十日，六環(huán)內禁止一切貨車通行，八月二十日戒嚴，九 月一日核心區(qū)將全面停工，周邊地區(qū)工地也會受影響，這個停工的消息也打破了市場之前大家在等待的后期需求好轉的預期。另一方面，市場庫存壓力非常大，據(jù)蘭 格鋼鐵網(wǎng)9日統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)顯示，天津方管市場庫存總量為24.12萬噸，比上周增加2.84萬噸。不管是庫存總量還是庫存累積速度都遠遠超過了去年同期， 更是創(chuàng)下了近四年同期新高。

Demand has been slow to improve, market inventory pressure is enormous, market sentiment pessimistic expectations intensified. The Autumn Festival is coming this week, and the hot and rainy season seems to be longer than in previous years, leading to the late seasonal change of demand side and the sluggish market turnover. Recently, it has been reported that Beijing will hold the celebration of the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China this year. From August 20 to October 10, all trucks in the Sixth Ring Road will be banned. On August 20, martial law will be imposed. On September 1, the core area will be completely shut down, and the surrounding areas will also be affected. The news of the shutdown also broke the market before everyone. Expectations of improved demand at a later stage of waiting. On the other hand, the market inventory pressure is very high. According to the statistics of Langer Iron and Steel Network 9, the total inventory of Tianjin Square Management Market is 2412,000 tons, an increase of 28,400 tons over last week. Whether the total inventory or the accumulative speed of inventory is much faster than the same period last year, and it has reached a new high in the same period in recent four years.

利空消息有增無減，資本市場承壓。首先是人民幣破七，8月5日，在岸人民幣對美元匯率跳空低開，日內最高挫逾1000點，跌破7.0大關。與此同 時，離岸人民幣對美元同樣跌破7.0關口，受此影響，市場悲觀預期加劇，黑色系主流品種跌幅擴大，鐵礦石更是上演跌停板。隨后，美國財政部正式將中國列為 匯率操縱國，是1994年以來首次，而商務部6日凌晨又發(fā)表消息稱，中國相關企業(yè)暫停新的美國農(nóng)產(chǎn)品采購。受此影響，美股暴跌，全球股市承壓，大宗商品市 場亦受到影響。

The negative news has increased, and the capital market is under pressure. First, the renminbi broke through July. On August 5, the onshore exchange rate of the renminbi against the US dollar jumped to a low level, dropping more than 1,000 points in the day, breaking the 7.0 mark. At the same time, the offshore RMB also fell below the 7.0 barrier against the US dollar. Affected by this, the market pessimistic expectations intensified, the decline of black mainstream varieties expanded, and iron ore also staged a drop stop. Subsequently, the U.S. Treasury formally listed China as a currency manipulator for the first time since 1994, while the Ministry of Commerce announced in the early morning of June 6 that Chinese companies had suspended new U.S. agricultural purchases. As a result, U.S. stocks fell sharply, global stock markets were under pressure, and commodity markets were also affected.

綜合來看，本周天津方管市場不管是基本面還是消息面都是利空占主導，市場信心嚴重不足。短期來看，需求很難恢復，而市場庫存仍將進一步加大，低價 出貨仍是市場主流，不過經(jīng)過本周價格深跌，下行空間進一步縮小，再加上利空經(jīng)過消化也會有所緩和。因此，預計下周天津方管市場將震蕩偏弱運行。

In a word, Tianjin's square management market this week is dominated by bad luck in both basic and news aspects, and market confidence is seriously inadequate. In the short term, demand will be difficult to recover, and market inventory will continue to increase further, low-price shipments are still the mainstream of the market, but after this week's deep price drop, downward space will be further reduced, coupled with the digestion of the bearish will also ease. Therefore, it is expected that the Tianjin Square Management Market will shake weakly next week.

方管價格方面，截至8月9日午間，天津市場上河北鋼鐵集團產(chǎn)HPB300Φ6.5-10mm高線價格為4660-4800元， 比上周價格跌70元；河北鋼鐵集團產(chǎn)Φ18-25mm三級抗震螺紋鋼價格為3640-3680元，比上周價格跌120-140元；三級抗震盤螺價格為 4100元，比上周價格跌100-120元。

As for square pipe price, as of noon on August 9, Hebei Iron and Steel Group's HPB300 6.5-10mm high-speed line price in Tianjin market was 4660-4800 yuan, 70 yuan lower than last week's price; Hebei Iron and Steel Group's price of 18-25mm three-stage aseismic threaded steel was 3640-3680 yuan, 120-140 yuan lower than last week's price; and the price of three-stage aseismic screw was 4100 yuan. It's 100-120 yuan lower than last week's price.