方管市場(chǎng)價(jià)格繼續(xù)偏弱。本周來(lái)看,國(guó)內(nèi)方管市場(chǎng)價(jià)格繼續(xù)趨弱,且均價(jià)跌幅略有擴(kuò)大。本周期貨市場(chǎng)整體表現(xiàn)疲弱下行,受此影響現(xiàn)貨市場(chǎng)表現(xiàn)同樣低迷。據(jù)了解,周初由于鐵礦石期貨 大幅漲停,期螺期卷欲拉漲上揚(yáng),但現(xiàn)貨市場(chǎng)實(shí)際需求放緩,促使期螺期卷意外下滑,現(xiàn)貨成交狀況一般。隨后基本面各類(lèi)消息出臺(tái),央行重啟逆回購(gòu);杭鋼股份籌 劃重大資產(chǎn)重組,南鋼股份重組有進(jìn)展;河北武安大氣污染應(yīng)急減排措施發(fā)布通知燒結(jié)晚間全部停產(chǎn);28日天津市生態(tài)環(huán)境局召開(kāi)2019年度打好污染防治攻堅(jiān) 戰(zhàn)發(fā)布會(huì),透露對(duì)保留的4家鋼鐵企業(yè)進(jìn)行深度治理。消息炒作欲再次推動(dòng)期貨拉漲,但無(wú)奈敗興回落。據(jù)國(guó)家統(tǒng)計(jì)局發(fā)布數(shù)據(jù)顯示,4月全國(guó)方管產(chǎn)量為 283.4萬(wàn)噸,創(chuàng)歷史新高。且5月津冀魯豫方管廠以及全國(guó)百家中小高爐開(kāi)工率基本仍居高位,據(jù)蘭格網(wǎng)統(tǒng)計(jì),本周津冀魯豫方管廠日產(chǎn)方管產(chǎn)量6.6萬(wàn) 噸,產(chǎn)能利用率96%,周比增2個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。
Market prices continue to be weak. This week, domestic market prices continue to weaken, and the average price decline has expanded slightly. The overall performance of the futures market was weak this week, which affected the performance of the spot market. It is understood that early in the week, due to the sharp rise and stop of iron ore futures, snail futures are expected to rise, but the actual demand of the spot market slowed down, prompting the unexpected decline of snail futures, and the situation of spot transactions is general. Subsequently, various basic information was released, the central bank restarted reverse repurchase; Hangzhou Iron and Steel Co. planned major asset restructuring, and Nangang Co. restructuring made progress; Hebei Wuan Air Pollution Emergency Emission Reduction Measures issued a notice that all sintering was stopped at night; Tianjin Eco-environment Bureau held a conference on the 28th to tackle the key battles of pollution prevention and control in 2019, revealing that the four retained iron and steel enterprises should be treated in depth. 。 News speculation wants to push futures up again, but it has no choice but to fall back. According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in April, the national production of square tubes reached a record high of 2.834 million tons. And in May, the start-up rate of Jinji-Shandong-Henan Fangfang Pipe Plant and 100 small and medium-sized blast furnaces in China is still at a high level. According to the statistics of Lange Net, this week's output of Tianjin-Hebei-Shandong-Henan Fangfang Pipe Plant is 66,000 tons per day, the productivity utilization rate is 96%, and the weekly ratio is increased by 2 percentage points.
全國(guó)百家中小鋼企高爐開(kāi)工率81.19%,降0.35%;有84座高爐檢修,增1座??梢?jiàn),后期若開(kāi)工不降,產(chǎn) 能繼續(xù)擴(kuò)張,隨著淡季來(lái)臨,供大于求的局面或加劇,對(duì)市場(chǎng)價(jià)格影響不利,因此需警惕產(chǎn)能擴(kuò)張的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。另外,本周全國(guó)29個(gè)重點(diǎn)城市方管庫(kù)存99.59萬(wàn) 噸,周增2.85萬(wàn)噸,庫(kù)存略有回升,價(jià)格抗跌力度較上周減小。綜合來(lái)看,板材需求弱于長(zhǎng)材,板材下游需求汽車(chē),機(jī)械等行業(yè)指數(shù)下降,迫使需求端走弱,而 后期雖有限產(chǎn)支撐,但不確定因素太多,價(jià)格承壓。今日來(lái)看,國(guó)內(nèi)主導(dǎo)城市邯鄲、唐山、天津、江陰、樂(lè)從方管主流價(jià)格分別運(yùn)行在3830、3890、 3850、3860、4170元左右,報(bào)價(jià)均小幅下跌,且南北價(jià)差收縮,流動(dòng)性不強(qiáng)。再有,今日5月份鋼鐵流通業(yè)PMI總指數(shù)發(fā)布為48.7%,環(huán)比回落 2.8個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。故后市而言,國(guó)內(nèi)方管價(jià)格或有承壓下行可能。
The operation rate of blast furnaces in 100 small and medium-sized steel enterprises in China is 81.19%, down by 0.35%. 84 blast furnaces have been overhauled and one more has been added. It can be seen that if construction does not decline in the latter period, capacity will continue to expand. With the coming of the off-season, the situation of oversupply or aggravation will adversely affect market prices, so we need to be vigilant against the risk of capacity expansion. In addition, the square tube inventory of 29 key cities in China increased by 28.5 million tons this week, with a slight rebound in inventory and a decrease in price resistance compared with last week. Generally speaking, the demand for sheet metal is weaker than that for long steel, and the downstream demand for automobiles, machinery and other industries has declined, forcing the demand side to weaken, while the latter is supported by limited production, but there are too many uncertainties and price pressures. Today, the mainstream prices of Handan, Tangshan, Tianjin, Jiangyin and Lecong square tubes in the leading cities in China are running around 3830, 3890, 3850, 3860 and 4170 yuan respectively. The quotations are all slightly declining, and the price gap between North and South is shrinking and the liquidity is not strong. Moreover, in May today, the total PMI index of iron and steel circulation industry was released at 48.7%, down 2.8 percentage points annually. Therefore, for the future market, domestic prices may fall under pressure.
價(jià)格方面:截至5月31日,國(guó)內(nèi)重點(diǎn)城市20mm方管均價(jià)3996元(噸價(jià),下同),較上個(gè)交易日下跌5元,較上周同期下跌34元,較上月同期下跌86元。
Price: As of May 31, the average square tube price of 20mm in key cities in China was 3996 yuan (ton price, the same below), which was 5 yuan lower than the previous trading day, 34 yuan lower than the same period last week and 86 yuan lower than the same period last month.
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