在G20釋放利好的帶動(dòng)下周末方管大漲，方管現(xiàn)貨漲幅也較明顯，周初開(kāi)市，期螺再破前高，成功突破4100元整數(shù)關(guān)口，鐵礦石再創(chuàng)新高，市場(chǎng)拉漲氣 氛明顯，部分方管廠家有封庫(kù)現(xiàn)象，天津方管市場(chǎng)價(jià)格繼續(xù)上漲。隨后中美貿(mào)易談判又生變故，唐山限產(chǎn)又有變動(dòng)，方管價(jià)格快速下跌，期螺跳水，市場(chǎng)預(yù)期發(fā)生改變， 天津方管廠家信心開(kāi)始動(dòng)搖，前期壓貨的散戶開(kāi)始甩單套利，大戶也開(kāi)始下浮報(bào)價(jià)降低風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，天津方管市場(chǎng)價(jià)格震蕩下行。

Driven by the good release of G20, the square tube market rose sharply at the weekend and the spot tube market increased more obviously. The market opened at the beginning of the week, and the snail broke again before breaking. It successfully broke through the 4,100 yuan integer barrier. Iron ore reached a new high again. The market atmosphere was obvious. Some merchants had the phenomenon of closing stores. The price of Tianjin square tube market continued to rise. Subsequently, the Sino-US trade negotiations changed again. Tangshan's production restriction changed again. Fangguan's price fell rapidly, snails dived, market expectations changed. Tianjin's Fangguan's confidence began to shake. Bulk retailers began to dump single arbitrage in the early period. Large retailers also began to lower the risk by floating quotation. Tianjin Fangguan's market price shocks down.

中美貿(mào)易和環(huán)保限產(chǎn)變臉快，鋼市有點(diǎn)懵。上周末G20峰會(huì)中美領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人會(huì)晤結(jié)果超預(yù)期，雙方重啟貿(mào)易磋商，美方不再對(duì)中國(guó)新征關(guān)稅，中國(guó)亦繼續(xù)擴(kuò)大 開(kāi)放，對(duì)市場(chǎng)心態(tài)產(chǎn)生了明顯的提振作用。隨后周初唐山市政府又突然發(fā)布限產(chǎn)文件，唐山環(huán)保再度深化，豐潤(rùn)7月大氣污染防治管控方案對(duì)天柱、新寶泰要確保燒 結(jié)機(jī)(球團(tuán))、高爐、轉(zhuǎn)爐、石灰窯限產(chǎn)比例不低于50%，高爐扒爐停產(chǎn)。在市場(chǎng)中引起軒然大波，給持續(xù)低迷的現(xiàn)貨市場(chǎng)再次注入一針強(qiáng)心劑，這兩條刺激性的 消息帶動(dòng)了從上周末到本周初的期貨，方管市場(chǎng)，天津方管市場(chǎng)也順勢(shì)大幅拉漲?？墒牵瑳](méi)兩天這兩個(gè)利好消息迅速變臉，由利好變成了利空，首先是有新聞報(bào)道 稱，特朗普及其團(tuán)隊(duì)表示與中國(guó)貿(mào)易談判分歧還很大，與5月談判破裂時(shí)一樣大，中美沒(méi)有達(dá)成貿(mào)易和解的時(shí)間表。然后是唐山再次發(fā)文，公布了少部分企業(yè)7月可 不限產(chǎn)時(shí)間段，唐山整體理論限產(chǎn)量較之前測(cè)算有所減弱。這兩大因素突然出現(xiàn)變數(shù)，對(duì)之前的市場(chǎng)信心打擊非常大。

Sino-US trade and environmental restrictions are fast changing, and the steel market is a bit confused. Last weekend, the meeting between Chinese and American leaders at the G20 summit was more than expected. The two sides resumed trade negotiations. The United States no longer imposed new tariffs on China. China continued to expand its opening up, which had a significant boost to the market mentality. Later, Tangshan Municipal Government issued a production limit document suddenly at the beginning of Zhou Dynasty. Tangshan's environmental protection was deepened again. Fengrun July's air pollution control and control plan for Tianzhu and Xinbaotai should ensure that the production limit ratio of sintering machine (pellet), blast furnace, converter and lime kiln is not less than 50%, and the production of blast furnace pickling stops. In the market caused a great uproar, to continue the downturn of the spot market injected a shot of cardiotonic agent, these two stimulating news led to the futures from last weekend to the beginning of this week, the square tube market, Tianjin square tube market also boosted substantially. However, within two days, the two positive news quickly changed from positive to negative. First, there were news reports that Trump Popular's team said that there was still a big difference in trade negotiations with China, as big as when the talks broke down in May, and there was no timetable for China and the United States to reach a trade settlement. Then Tangshan sent another paper, announcing that a small number of enterprises can limit production in July, and the theoretical limit production of Tangshan as a whole has weakened compared with previous estimates. The sudden emergence of variables in these two factors has hit the previous market confidence very hard.

鐵礦石背離方管價(jià)格走勢(shì)，已被國(guó)家有關(guān)部委關(guān)注。本周初黑色系冰火兩重天，期螺先漲后跌，重新打回4100元下方，而鐵礦石卻繼續(xù)向上突破，到本 周中期，已打破5年半來(lái)新高點(diǎn)，直到周后期才有所回調(diào)。據(jù)中國(guó)證券網(wǎng)消息，中國(guó)鋼鐵工業(yè)協(xié)會(huì)副會(huì)長(zhǎng)屈秀麗7月5日在上海召開(kāi)的第四屆中國(guó)鋼鐵金融衍生品國(guó) 際大會(huì)上表示，鐵礦石與方管價(jià)格走勢(shì)相背離，國(guó)家有關(guān)部委高度關(guān)注進(jìn)口鐵礦石價(jià)格的大幅上漲，正在調(diào)查了解價(jià)格大幅上漲的原因，將嚴(yán)厲打擊亂漲價(jià)、價(jià)格壟 斷等不規(guī)范行為。這一消息將對(duì)后期鐵礦石價(jià)格形成沖擊，而間接的也會(huì)影響方管價(jià)格。

The price trend of iron ore deviating from square control has been concerned by relevant ministries and commissions of the state. At the beginning of this week, the black ice-fire double day, snails first rose and then fell, hit back below 4100 yuan, while iron ore continued to break upward, by the middle of this week, has broken a new high in five and a half years, until the end of the week there was no callback. According to China Securities Network, Qu Xiuli, vice president of China Iron and Steel Industry Association, said at the 4th International Conference on Iron and Steel Financial Derivatives held in Shanghai on July 5 that the price trend of iron ore is different from that of square tubes. Relevant ministries and commissions of the state pay close attention to the sharp rise in the price of imported iron ore and are investigating and understanding that the price is very high. The reason for the rise will be to crack down on such irregular acts as unreasonable price increases and price monopolies. This news will have an impact on iron ore prices in the later period, and indirectly will also affect the Party-controlled prices.

綜合來(lái)看，本周天津方管市場(chǎng)在中美貿(mào)易和環(huán)保的變化中震蕩運(yùn)行。目前由于前期過(guò)快的拉高價(jià)格導(dǎo)致與目前的需求脫節(jié)，市場(chǎng)已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)有價(jià)無(wú)市的尷尬現(xiàn) 象，商家面對(duì)這種局面目前唯一的選擇只能是降價(jià)促銷(xiāo)降低風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。短期內(nèi)市場(chǎng)可能會(huì)出現(xiàn)一波回調(diào)。因此，預(yù)計(jì)下周天津方管市場(chǎng)價(jià)格將震蕩下行。

In a word, Tianjin Square Management Market has been shaking this week amid changes in Sino-US trade and environmental protection. At present, due to the high price in the early stage, which leads to the disconnection with the current demand, the market has already appeared the awkward phenomenon of no market for value. The only choice for the merchants facing this situation is to reduce the price and reduce the risk. There may be a pullback in the short term. Therefore, it is expected that Tianjin Fangguan's market price will fluctuate downward next week.

價(jià)格方面，截至7月5日午間，天津市場(chǎng)上河北鋼鐵集團(tuán)產(chǎn)HPB300Φ6.5-10mm高線價(jià)格為4740-4880元， 比上周價(jià)格漲90元；河北鋼鐵集團(tuán)產(chǎn)Φ18-25mm三級(jí)抗震螺紋鋼價(jià)格為3940元，比上周價(jià)格漲10-40元；三級(jí)盤(pán)螺價(jià)格為4280元，比上周價(jià)格 漲50元。

In terms of price, as of noon on July 5, the price of HPB300 6.5-10mm high-line produced by Hebei Iron and Steel Group in Tianjin market was 4740-4880 yuan, up 90 yuan from last week's price; the price of 18-25mm three-stage aseismic thread steel produced by Hebei Iron and Steel Group was 3940 yuan, up 10-40 yuan from last week's price; the price of third-stage screw was 4280 yuan, up 50 yuan from last week's price. Yuan.