本周方管市場價(jià)格震蕩趨穩(wěn)。截至9月12日，國內(nèi)重點(diǎn)城市16-25mm普板均價(jià)3800元(噸價(jià)，下同)，較上個(gè)交易日下跌3元，較上周基本持平，較上月同期跌51元。本周開盤，在基本面利好消息余溫影響下，期貨市場繼續(xù)高位震蕩，與此同時(shí)，現(xiàn)貨市場情緒高漲，價(jià)格小幅追高，但隨著行情繼續(xù)，方管表現(xiàn)卻不如人 愿。據(jù)各地方管反饋，近日雖期貨飄紅拉拽，但對(duì)現(xiàn)貨影響力度偏弱，國內(nèi)方管市場價(jià)格上漲幅度并不大。另外，由于各地貿(mào)易環(huán)節(jié)的投機(jī)需求釋放不大，市場仍 以剛需為支撐，因此價(jià)格上漲動(dòng)力不足，且市場成交受到限制。

This week the market price shocks have stabilized. As of September 12, the average price of 16-25mm board in key cities in China was 3800 yuan (ton price, the same below), which was 3 yuan lower than the previous trading day, basically unchanged from last week, and 51 yuan lower than the same period last month. At the beginning of this week, the futures market continued to oscillate at a high level under the influence of the good basic news. At the same time, the sentiment of the spot market was high and the price was slightly higher. However, as the market continued, the performance of Fang Guan was not as good as expected. According to feedback from traders around the world, although futures have been fluttering in recent days, the impact on spot is weak, and the price rise in the domestic market is not large. In addition, due to the small release of speculative demand in trade links around the world, the market is still supported by just demand, so the momentum of price rise is insufficient, and market transactions are limited. 現(xiàn)華北區(qū)域在70周年大慶以及鋼企限產(chǎn)、國家降準(zhǔn)的支撐下穩(wěn)中上調(diào)，不過，在鋼企開工相對(duì)高位，鋼材產(chǎn)量繼續(xù)上升的情況下，供需略為矛盾，多空博 弈，價(jià)格較為糾結(jié)。華東及華南市場對(duì)限產(chǎn)敏感度較低，在鋼企產(chǎn)量增加以及需求不旺的影響下，價(jià)格上漲相對(duì)困難，不過，由于當(dāng)?shù)厥袌鐾r(jià)意愿較高，因此價(jià)格 相對(duì)于華北表現(xiàn)平穩(wěn)，變化幅度不是很大。另外，華南地區(qū)算是市場消化地，需求亦北方強(qiáng)，因此價(jià)格支撐力度仍存。

Now the North China region has steadily increased under the support of the 70th anniversary celebration and the restriction of production by steel enterprises and the reduction of national standards. However, in the case of relatively high start-up of steel enterprises and continuous increase of steel production, supply and demand are slightly contradictory, multi-empty game and price is more tangled. Eastern and southern China markets are less sensitive to production restriction. Under the influence of the increase of steel production and weak demand, price increases are relatively difficult. However, due to the high willingness of local market to bid, prices are stable relative to North China, and the range of change is not very large. In addition, South China is a market digestion, demand is also strong in the North, so price support is still strong.

據(jù)中鋼協(xié)統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)顯示，2019年8月中旬重點(diǎn)鋼企粗鋼日均產(chǎn)量205.42萬噸，旬環(huán)比增加0.62萬噸，增長0.3%；鋼材庫存量為1314.99萬噸，旬環(huán)比增加28.64萬噸，上升2.23%。

According to the statistics of China Steel Association, the average daily output of crude steel in key steel enterprises in mid-August 2019 was 2.0542 million tons, with an increase of 0.62 million tons in ten-year cycle and an increase of 0.3% in ten-year cycle, and the stock of steel was 13.1499 million tons, with an increase of 286.4 million tons in ten-year cycle and an increase of 2.23%.

目前，國內(nèi)主導(dǎo)城市邯鄲、唐山、天津、江陰、上海方管主流價(jià)格在3660、3680、3650、3780、3780元左右，華北城市價(jià)格較上周同 期穩(wěn)中有降，華東城市略有上漲，較為堅(jiān)挺。今日來看，午盤后市，期貨突漲，商家情緒有所升溫，且部分市場成交回轉(zhuǎn)，于價(jià)格形成支撐，然而現(xiàn)中秋臨近之時(shí)， 方管廠家謹(jǐn)慎觀望心態(tài)較重，且市場低價(jià)出貨現(xiàn)象依存，因此價(jià)格基本仍持穩(wěn)。

At present, the mainstream prices of Handan, Tangshan, Tianjin, Jiangyin and Shanghai are around 3660, 3680, 3650, 3780 and 3780 yuan. The prices of cities in North China have dropped steadily compared with the same period last week, while those in East China have risen slightly and are relatively strong. Today, in the afternoon market, futures soared, business sentiment warmed up, and some markets turned around to support prices. However, when the Mid-Autumn Festival is approaching, business cautious wait-and-see mentality is heavier, and the phenomenon of low-price market delivery is dependent, so prices remain basically stable.

方管廠家方面：截至發(fā)稿，津冀魯豫方管廠日均方管產(chǎn)量6.47萬噸，產(chǎn)能利用率81%，周比降近5個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。另外，在成交不佳的影響下，北方方管廠總結(jié)單量表現(xiàn)欠佳。綜合而言，若無重磅消息刺激，鋼企開工繼續(xù)下降，短期內(nèi)國內(nèi)方管市場價(jià)格或震蕩趨強(qiáng)運(yùn)行。

As far as square pipe manufacturers are concerned, the daily average square pipe output of Tianjin-Hebei-Shandong-Henan square pipe plants is 64.7 million tons, the productivity utilization rate is 81%, and the weekly ratio is reduced by nearly 5 percentage points. In addition, under the influence of poor turnover, the performance of the summary sheet of the Northern Pipe Factory is not good. Generally speaking, without heavy news stimulation, steel enterprises continue to decline in construction, and in the short term, domestic market prices or shocks tend to run stronger.